The New York Times vs. statistics
Sep. 3rd, 2010 10:55 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
tahnanCompared to the opinions this poll forced you to express, would you say that your beliefs are: much more nuanced, somewhat more nuanced, a little more nuanced, or no more nuanced?
The New York Times reports:
What else makes me skeptical? Well, on the one hand, the article opens with the striking statement above, and follows it up later by saying "67 percent said that while Muslims had a right to construct the center near ground zero, they should find a different site." That matches their handy multimedia graphic. On the other hand, they claim that "[o]ver all, 50 percent of those surveyed oppose building the project two blocks north of the World Trade Center site, even though a majority believe that the developers have the right to do so", which also matches their graphic. Setting aside their copyediting (it's overall, one word, guys), I'm having trouble reconciling the idea that 50% of the people oppose the construction, while 67% of the people think it should be moved (or, conversely, that 35% favor the construction, whereas only 27% believe "it should be built"). It's possible that there's something in the methodology that explains this, but if there is, the article certainly doesn't make it clear.
Mind you, I'm also skeptical of the dichotomy they present: "Do you favor or oppose the construction near ground zero?", according to their graphic. To be honest, in my case, it's neither, and not because I have no opinion. I certainly don't oppose it—it's clearly within their rights and to be honest I don't have a say in the matter. Then again, I can't swear I favor it—I'm not entirely sure what it means to "favor the construction", but I do think that if someone had come to me in the planning stages and said "We're thinking of building an Islamic cultural center several blocks from the former WTC site; what do you think?" I might well have replied "Well, if you think it's a good idea, but I'd be worried about a backlash". It really comes down to what Chris Hayes (of The Nation) said when standing in for Rachel Maddow several weeks ago:
I suppose the New York Times could conduct a poll asking New Yorkers, "Do you like or dislike Justin Bieber's music?". It would tell us something about the musical taste of New Yorkers, at least those old enough to answer phone surveys. On the other hand, it wouldn't tell us anything at all about whether Justin Bieber should be allowed to have a recording contract; that's up to the studios. (Note that if 95% of the population dislikes his music, and the studios think that they can nevertheless make enough money by selling it to the remaining 5%, the result is that they sell the music, regardless of what 95% of the population thinks.)
Maybe I favor the construction; maybe I don't. Maybe two-thirds of the population of New York opposes the construction. On the other hand, it doesn't matter, and I think I'm mad at the New York Times for putting the story on their front page ("A version of this article appeared in print on September 3, 2010, on page A1 of the New York edition") as if it does. I suppose there's probably a story in here somewhere about the opinions of New Yorkers, or about Islamophobia, but I don't think it's the story that they wrote. And I'm not so sure their poll makes any sense.
(Edit: while the poll results still don't seem to me where they're supposed to be, they are linked from the front page near the link to the article, though still not from the article itself. There's not really any more subtlety in the numbers than is expressed in the graphic: the questions are worded pretty much the way they're produced above. Which makes me think all the more that the poll was badly-constructed, hence the new bolded title of this post.)
The New York Times reports:
Two-thirds of New York City residents want a planned Muslim community center and mosque to be relocated to a less controversial site farther away from ground zero in Lower Manhattan, including many who describe themselves as supporters of the project, according to a New York Times poll.I'm trying to believe them, but they also report that Complete questions and results are available at nytimes.com/polls, which is provably false; in fact, they're not even available at the right URL.
What else makes me skeptical? Well, on the one hand, the article opens with the striking statement above, and follows it up later by saying "67 percent said that while Muslims had a right to construct the center near ground zero, they should find a different site." That matches their handy multimedia graphic. On the other hand, they claim that "[o]ver all, 50 percent of those surveyed oppose building the project two blocks north of the World Trade Center site, even though a majority believe that the developers have the right to do so", which also matches their graphic. Setting aside their copyediting (it's overall, one word, guys), I'm having trouble reconciling the idea that 50% of the people oppose the construction, while 67% of the people think it should be moved (or, conversely, that 35% favor the construction, whereas only 27% believe "it should be built"). It's possible that there's something in the methodology that explains this, but if there is, the article certainly doesn't make it clear.
Mind you, I'm also skeptical of the dichotomy they present: "Do you favor or oppose the construction near ground zero?", according to their graphic. To be honest, in my case, it's neither, and not because I have no opinion. I certainly don't oppose it—it's clearly within their rights and to be honest I don't have a say in the matter. Then again, I can't swear I favor it—I'm not entirely sure what it means to "favor the construction", but I do think that if someone had come to me in the planning stages and said "We're thinking of building an Islamic cultural center several blocks from the former WTC site; what do you think?" I might well have replied "Well, if you think it's a good idea, but I'd be worried about a backlash". It really comes down to what Chris Hayes (of The Nation) said when standing in for Rachel Maddow several weeks ago:
In fact, even setting aside hateful speech, you might say to me, "Chris, do you support the conservative weekly magazine, The National Review"? What would I say? I don't really agree with much of what they publish. In fact, some of it is downright awful. But I certainly don't want anyone attempting to stop them from publishing.If you ask me whether I favor or oppose Justin Bieber's music...well, I might oppose it in the sense of not liking it, but I don't oppose it happening, not that I especially "favor" it happening, either.
Support just isn't the right verb to use. Do I support Justin Bieber's musical career? Well, I'll tell you, I don't really like his music much, but I don't think the government should throw Justin Bieber in jail.
Again, support is a verb that does not apply. And that's the point. You don't support the mosque or not—you support the First Amendment or not. You either support the part of the Bill of Rights that says that people on private property can build a house of worship or you do not. You don't get to say, I support the First Amendment, but.
I suppose the New York Times could conduct a poll asking New Yorkers, "Do you like or dislike Justin Bieber's music?". It would tell us something about the musical taste of New Yorkers, at least those old enough to answer phone surveys. On the other hand, it wouldn't tell us anything at all about whether Justin Bieber should be allowed to have a recording contract; that's up to the studios. (Note that if 95% of the population dislikes his music, and the studios think that they can nevertheless make enough money by selling it to the remaining 5%, the result is that they sell the music, regardless of what 95% of the population thinks.)
Maybe I favor the construction; maybe I don't. Maybe two-thirds of the population of New York opposes the construction. On the other hand, it doesn't matter, and I think I'm mad at the New York Times for putting the story on their front page ("A version of this article appeared in print on September 3, 2010, on page A1 of the New York edition") as if it does. I suppose there's probably a story in here somewhere about the opinions of New Yorkers, or about Islamophobia, but I don't think it's the story that they wrote. And I'm not so sure their poll makes any sense.
(Edit: while the poll results still don't seem to me where they're supposed to be, they are linked from the front page near the link to the article, though still not from the article itself. There's not really any more subtlety in the numbers than is expressed in the graphic: the questions are worded pretty much the way they're produced above. Which makes me think all the more that the poll was badly-constructed, hence the new bolded title of this post.)
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